probabilistic

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  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _drutex_create_regex() (line 363 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Notice: Use of undefined constant filter - assumed 'filter' in preg_replace() (line 1 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module(363) : regexp code).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _filter_drutex_process() (line 315 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _drutex_create_regex() (line 363 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Notice: Use of undefined constant filter - assumed 'filter' in preg_replace() (line 1 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module(363) : regexp code).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _filter_drutex_process() (line 315 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _drutex_create_regex() (line 363 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Notice: Use of undefined constant filter - assumed 'filter' in preg_replace() (line 1 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module(363) : regexp code).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _filter_drutex_process() (line 315 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _drutex_create_regex() (line 363 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Notice: Use of undefined constant filter - assumed 'filter' in preg_replace() (line 1 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module(363) : regexp code).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _filter_drutex_process() (line 315 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _drutex_create_regex() (line 363 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Notice: Use of undefined constant filter - assumed 'filter' in preg_replace() (line 1 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module(363) : regexp code).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _filter_drutex_process() (line 315 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _drutex_create_regex() (line 363 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Notice: Use of undefined constant filter - assumed 'filter' in preg_replace() (line 1 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module(363) : regexp code).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _filter_drutex_process() (line 315 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _drutex_create_regex() (line 363 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Notice: Use of undefined constant filter - assumed 'filter' in preg_replace() (line 1 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module(363) : regexp code).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _filter_drutex_process() (line 315 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _drutex_create_regex() (line 363 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Deprecated function: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in _drutex_unhide_all() (line 479 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).
  • Notice: Undefined index: en in drutex_node_view() (line 81 of /home/davemr/mo-seph.com/sites/all/modules/drutex/drutex.module).

Modelling Techniques: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis 1

I'm going to spend a couple of posts talking about some techniques I've been using while building and calibrating models, as they seem to be less well known than they might be. The first in this series is Sensitivity Analysis.

== What is Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis ==

UA and SA are techniques to analyse the robustness of model outputs; that is, given a model, and certain assumptions about its input parameters (and their distributions), we would like to know how much we can trust the output. In general terms, Uncertainty Analysis gives us the amount of uncertainty (or variance) in the model output, while Sensitivity Analysis tells us how much of that variance is due to each of the input factors.

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